One-month mortality rate after liver transplantation for parenchymal cirrhosis analysis of risk factors in a ten year period

Accurate prediction of short-term survival rate after liver transplantation is one way of selecting recipients and should improve organ allocation. We observed, during the first ten years of our program a striking decline in postoperative mortality with time, a well known observation in Europe as well as in the United States. In 65 adults with parenchymal cirrhosis having received a liver transplant between 1984 and 1994, we examined the possible influence of various preoperative risk factors on one-month mortality rate which was 13.8% in this series. Univariate analysis led to the identification of five significant risk factors : date of transplantation, low serum sodium, previous history of jaundice, ascites and encephalopathy. In the final muftivariate analysis however, the date of transplantation emerged as the sole predictive factor of early mortality rate. Therefore, factors such as pretransplantation state of the patient and poor hepatic reserve are counterbalanced by the improvement of surgical skill and other technical aspects, as well as by better perioperative management which have all contributed to the improved results of liver transplantation with time.